Analysis on security of gas supply for the 2025-2026 gas year

In its analysis GTS applies three scenarios: a basic variant, a variant with increased gas supply for the Netherlands, and a variant with reduced supply due to limited availability of LNG. In the variant with reduced supply, a cold year would likely see a gas shortage. In its assumptions, GTS assumes the closure of EemsEnergyTerminal and that shortages will continue to arise until after 2030. Under the current assumptions, the volume shortage is less than previously reported. However, to ensure security of supply GTS believes it is important to maintain the existing supply. 

Capacity and volume balance
The capacity balance (with peak demand) shows a limited shortage in a situation that statistically occurs once every 20 years. The volume balance (average demand for the entire gas year) only shows shortages in the variant with reduced supply and cold weather. The role of international gas flows is becoming increasingly important in this respect, in terms of keeping supply and demand in balance.

Gas storage facilities
With the closure of the Groningen field and the fall in the supply of Russian gas, gas storage facilities in the Netherlands have taken on a crucial role. GTS advises that the gas storage facilities be filled with at least 110 TWh (approx. 11bcm) by the start of the winter of 2025-2026. This level is necessary to absorb seasonal fluctuations in gas demand, primarily in the Netherlands but also in neighbouring countries supplied via the Netherlands. In addition to well filled gas storage facilities, to further guarantee security of supply GTS emphasises the importance of the connection capacity with neighbouring countries and diversification of supply.

Additional reserve
GTS based its advice on realistic assumptions and consulted market parties as regards these assumptions. However, the various scenarios do not take into account major or long-term disruptions, like the problems with Nord Stream in 2022 and the Baltic Interconnector in 2023. Additional measures are still necessary for this. With the closure of the Groningen field, the Netherlands can now only compensate for long-term disruptions with gas supplied from a gas storage facility.  Gas storage in existing seasonal storage facilities would be a logical option for securing additional reserves.