GTS advises on security of gas supply for 2024-2025: gas market remains tight

In late January 2024, Gasunie Transport Services (GTS) presented its advice on guaranteeing security of gas supply for the 2024/25 gas year to the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy. The advice stresses the need for measures in light of the planned permanent closure of the Groningen gas field and the associated challenges in terms of (peak) capacity and volume shortages for gas.

GTS’ analysis shows that a shortage of capacity may still arise over the coming two gas years. For 2024, GTS estimates a shortage of roughly 10GW during periods of high peak demand for gas. Additionally, GTS warns that it will prove difficult after cold winters over the coming years to get gas stocks in storage facilities back up to adequate levels over the summer periods.

GTS is of the opinion that it is not realistic to use additional gas supply, within a period of two years, to make up for capacity shortages that will arise at times of high peak demand combined with the outage of a major source such as the Norg gas storage facility. In these kinds of situations, any capacity shortages that arise can only be resolved by taking measures on the demand side. Volume shortages could be solved by generating additional supply through, for example, a higher pipeline utilisation rate that can be achieved by expanding or maintaining existing LNG terminals, or by building new LNG terminals. 

The planned closure of the Groningen gas field and declining domestic production is leading to growing dependence on gas imports from other countries. The complete shutdown of Russian gas supply increases dependence on H-gas in the global LNG market. GTS warns of H-gas shortages in the global LNG market that are expected to persist through to 2025.

Alongside the advice for the 2024-2025 gas year, GTS is currently developing a vision on how to guarantee security of gas supply for the long term, taking into account the closure of the Groningen gas field and changing domestic production. This study is expected to be completed soon.

You can find the associated documents on this page.