Security of supply overview for the 2026/2027  gas year

Today, the security of supply overview for the 2026/2027 gas year that Gasunie Transport Services (GTS) (100% subsidiary of Gasunie) recently submitted to the Dutch Ministry of Climate Policy and Green Growth was published. In it, GTS concludes that there will be sufficient capacity and volume available to meet demand for natural gas in the Netherlands in the 2026-2027 gas year, even if it is a cold year. This is based on the assumption that the LNG terminal at the port of Eemshaven will remain available beyond 2027 as well. GTS also warns of an increasing reliance on imports and points to the importance of gas storage facilities in this context. Furthermore, current geopolitical developments may carry risks such as potential long-term disruptions of gas supply and/or gas infrastructure.

Measures to mitigate prolonged disruptions are of a different nature and go beyond the scope of this security of supply overview. Later this year, Gasunie will publish a separate report to convey its vision on the potential risks and measures to take in the event of long-term infrastructure disruptions.

A look ahead
GTS’ analysis offers a look ahead to 2031. Gas demand in the Netherlands is decreasing only gradually and at a slower rate than previously expected: natural gas will continue to be the cornerstone of our energy supply for some time to come. North-western Europe relies increasingly on imported gas, most notably Norwegian gas and LNG, which amplifies the impact of geopolitical risks. As a result, it is crucial to maintain gas storage facilities in the Netherlands. It is also important to continue to invest in energy-saving measures and the decarbonisation of our energy needs.

Gas storage facilities are crucial
The security of supply overview assumes temperature-related gas demand in a cold year. GTS based this assumption on realistic premises and consulted on it with market parties. For the period through to 2031, the current gas storage facilities will continue to be needed to balance gas demand across the seasons, but also in the event of high demand in a cold year. Given the projected level of demand until 2031, GTS believes that the Netherlands’ three largest gas storage facilities (Grijpskerk, Norg and Bergermeer) will continue to be needed for gas storage.

Filling target
Assuming a cold year, the required filling target for the 2026-2027 gas year has been set at 115 TWh (11.5 bcm). This filling level is needed to absorb seasonal fluctuations in gas demand, primarily in the Netherlands but also in neighbouring countries whose gas is supplied via the Netherlands. In addition to well-filled gas storage facilities, to further guarantee security of supply GTS emphasises the importance of the connection capacity with neighbouring countries and diversification of supply.

Conclusion
Security of supply in the Netherlands is guaranteed for the 2026-2027 gas year, provided that the gas storage facilities are sufficiently filled and international supply chains remain operational. The Netherlands increasingly relies on gas imports, especially LNG imports. Ensuring that the gas storage facilities are sufficiently filled, maintaining sufficient connection capacity with neighbouring countries and diversifying the gas supply are crucial measures for a stable supply of gas over the coming years.

Annual advice
Under the current Dutch Gas Act, GTS has a statutory duty to present the minister with a security of supply overview for gas every year. For more information, see the link to the letter and the associated document containing the advice for the 2026-2027 gas year. It also includes a projection of developments through to 2030-2031.